From The Roots

Senator Burr's Polling Problems

     

This number, of course, denotes the raw reelect numbers for Republican Senator Richard Burr of North Carolina, according to a recent Public Policy Polling survey. It is indicative of the Senator's, er, *middling* popularity back home, and backed by numbers which showed the Senator losing his reelection bid to someone named Generic Democrat, 41% to 38%.

The 2010 outlook continues to look bleak for first term Republican Sen. Richard Burr. Only 29 percent of North Carolina voters believe he should get another term, 49 percent prefer someone else while 22 percent are undecided, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted June 12-14.

Republicans say Burr should get another term by a tepid 49 percent to 26 percent with 26 percent undecided. Independents say he should not by 52 percent to 34 percent while Democrats, unsurprisingly, want to see him gone by 66 percent to 11 percent.

(...) And when asked if they would support Burr against an unnamed Democrat, 41 percent chose the Democrat to 38 percent for Burr and 21 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.5 percent.

Needless to say, the Burr campaign didn't much cotton to numbers showing them losing to our friend Generic. So they started touting a (push) poll of their own, showing Burr leading potential Democratic opponent Elaine Marshall (but only after asking leading questions favorable to Burr).

Public Policy Polling countered...well, we'll let them tell the story.

As I wrote about yesterday, Roll Call had a story about what it identified as a Richard Burr internal poll that showed him leading Elaine Marshall. Burr's spokesman, Paul Shumaker, was quoted about the poll.

I pointed out that this was quite ironic given that two weeks ago Burr had told the News&Observer that our testing him against hypothetical opponents was 'ridiculous.'

Within an hour a commenter showed up on our blog saying that it was not actually an internal poll, but had come from the Carolina Strategy Group. The CSG is a new Republican automated polling firm in North Carolina (I'm pretty sure created to counter us) that is run by...the very same Paul Shumaker who is Burr's main political consultant.

Sooooo...Burr said it was "ridiculous" to poll him against hypothetical opponents. Subsequently, PPP polls him against Generic Dem, and...he loses.

So he counters by...letting his staff members (who apparently double as partisan pollsters) run a (push) poll showing him leading...a hypothetical opponent.

But that poll was NOT an internal, of course. The Burr campaign wouldn't bother commissioning such a "ridiculous" poll.

Of course.

 

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05:55 PM Jun 22, 2009 - 0 comments permalink

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"Hey, Guys? We're Doing It Wrong".

Interesting…Senator John Thune’s campaign committee launched a website several weeks ago called Supreme Court Watch Online.

Purporting to be a conservative "news" site, it is actually a blog designed to batter Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor, and it is owned and operated by…wait for it…”Friends of John Thune”.

In other words, the campaign arm of Thune’s operation is using the Sotomayor nomination to try and gin up Righteous Anger among their conservative base and enhance Sen. Thune's reelection bid.

Fair enough: this has happened before, and will happen again. The only real noteworthy aspect to this  is how beautifully it failed.

Evidently, though the GOP continues to flail at the wind over Sotomayor, they’re not getting any traction. Because today Thune came out and said:

“She doesn’t have the punch out there in terms of fundraising and recruiting, I think — at least so far,” said Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), who most likely will be elected as the No. 4 Republican in Senate leadership this week.

Shorter Thune: "we would like to raise money off of the Democratic Supreme Court nominee...and we tried! We tried hard! I personally did my best! But nobody's buying what we're selling".

Oh, well, back to the old drawing board...

 

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04:55 PM Jun 22, 2009 - 0 comments permalink

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Roy Blunt's Health Care Plan: Fail We Can Believe In

So it's a little late - about three weeks or so - but the House Republican health care task force (chaired by U.S. Senate candidate Roy Blunt of Missouri) has finally come up with their healthcare proposal.

And it is deep. Four whole pages deep! And it's only partially bullet points!

There are, of course, some holes in their grand plan:

House Republicans presented a four-page outline of their health care reform plan Wednesday but said they didn’t know yet how much it would cost, how they would pay for it and how many of the nearly 50 million Americans without insurance would be covered by it.

No cost estimates? No funding proposals? No idea how it helps cover the uninsured?

No problem!

This "plan" has all the intricate lack of detail of the GOP's budget proposal, which comes as a great surprise to many Washington insiders who didn't believe that the budget proposal - or the counter-stimulus package - could be outdone.

Congressman Blunt must be very proud of himself (and his impressive lack of productivity) as he goes off tonight to shake down the oil industry for campaign donations.

 

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10:00 AM Jun 18, 2009 - 0 comments permalink

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"If He Is Seriously Pondering The Race, He Ought To Stop Doing So Immediately"

Famed political pundit Stuart Rothenberg recently met with Peter Schiff, one of a field of Republicans who would be the next United States Senator from Connecticut, to discuss Schiff's prospective candidacy for the world's greatest deliberative body.

To say that Rothenberg came away from his interview duly unimpressed would be the understatement of the millennium. Rothenberg pulled no punches:

If he is seriously pondering the race, he ought to stop doing so immediately.

Well, that is a fine opening salvo. Let's hear how Rothenberg really feels!

Schiff is the first candidate I’ve ever interviewed who proudly says he can’t recall the last time he voted. “I’ve never seen a real reason to vote,” he says without hesitation, adding that he registered to vote only recently in Connecticut. Apparently, he’s never heard of the concept of civic duty or considered the meaning of 200 years of American history.

This is the next great hope of the Republican Party in the Northeast? "I've never seen a real reason to vote?" That's the guy with the civic pride and commitment to public service and the greater good on whom Republicans hope to rebuild their party in New England?

Seems like it. Although Schiff can hardly be called a committed Republican:

Finally, Schiff is the only major party hopeful I’ve ever interviewed who said there is no difference — absolutely no difference — between Republicans and Democrats, between President Barack Obama and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).

That ought to go over beautifully in a Republican primary.

For a man who supposedly makes decisions on the basis of data and analysis, Schiff seemed to lack any empirical evidence that he could win a Senate race, let alone a primary. Maybe that’s because he’d really rather appear on the Daily Show or spout off in national publications than do what is necessary to win a Senate seat.

Schiff has been roundly praised for his supposedly insightful commentary on the economy, but every time he opens his mouth, he gives yet another indicator that he is woefully ill prepared to be a U.S. Senator.

 

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12:40 AM Jun 15, 2009 - 0 comments permalink

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Mark Kirk: Talks Big, Helps Little

U.S. Rep. (and potential Senate candidate) Mark Kirk, Republican of Illinois, finds himself in very hot water over his recent statements on the U.S. budget, in which Illinois' favorite cowboy told the Chinese that the Obama Administration's budget numbers should not be trusted::

Needless to say, this did not go over well with those folks who disapprove of Congressmen traveling overseas and essentially calling the President of the United States a liar. That, apparently, is a sentiment which transcends party lines. Via the excellent Josh Kalven at ProgressIllinois, we learn:

It's worth noting that it's not only the liberal blogoshere that has questioned Kirk's actions. Conservative blogger Sister Touldjah remarked: "He should have saved his comments for stateside rather than blabbing to Chinese officials." And the Say Anything blog wrote: "I’m sorry, but politics stops at the border. Rep. Kirk can say whatever he wants about Obama’s budgeting here at home, but all but calling the President a liar to a foreign nation is not appropriate for a member of Congress."

So what did Kirk's trashing of the President and his administration actually do for U.S. foreign policy? Did it indeed help to advance our interests abroad?

Nah. As usual, Mark Kirk is just looking for opportunities to promote Mark Kirk.

Are Kirk's actions going to affect relations between China and the U.S. in any meaningful way? Probably not. After all, the Chinese government doesn't need Kirk's input to understand the fiscal state of the U.S. Treasury. They're obviously paying close attention. What this incident did prove is that when Kirk heads to the international stage, he takes his ego and political ambitions along with him, then brags about his bravado when he returns home. That's not a good sign.

There you have it - a Congressman who uses his position in international affairs for self-promotion and political grandstanding at the expense of his country's standing. Not the qualities you'd hope to see from a potential candidate for the United States Senate.

 

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12:30 PM Jun 12, 2009 - 0 comments permalink

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